Investment Perspectives

The DSEX entered Q4 2026 in a medium-term correction while its longer-term uptrend remains intact. The index closed at 5,482.36 on 4 October, below its 20-day, 50-day and 100-day moving averages but still above the 200-day SMA. The report identifies 5,376–5,393 as the decisive support zone for the quarter. The base-case scenario, assigned approximately 50% probability, anticipates a range-bound market with a downward bias, broadly between 5,376 and 5,700, with a potential year-end range of 5,400–5,600. A sustained breakdown below 5,376 would increase downside risk toward 5,290–5,340 and potentially 5,110–5,200, while a recovery above 5,632 and subsequently 5,694 with stronger turnover would improve the technical outlook

This paper evaluates Bangladesh equities through valuation, market performance, foreign participation and currency-adjusted returns. The framework combines DSEX performance, foreign portfolio equity flows, market P/E, dividend yield, Bangladesh and US 10-year yields, USD/BDT movements and a calculated USD investor real-carry spread. The analysis highlights valuation compression, weak foreign participation, benchmark dispersion and the importance of currency stability, liquidity and selective portfolio construction.

Presented by Sajid Rahman on 1 July 2015, this deck tests whether fundamental analysis rewards retail investors in Bangladesh by tracking the returns of three investor profiles against Empire Capital's April 2013 power sector recommendations over the following 26 months.