Headline yields can overstate the returns ultimately realised by global investors. This research compares India and Bangladesh through an FX-adjusted lens, examining long-term currency depreciation, sovereign carry and equity-market returns in USD terms. It finds that India has experienced greater long-run currency depreciation since 2010, while Bangladesh has faced the sharper adjustment since 2018, highlighting why local returns must be assessed after currency translation and against the US Treasury opportunity cost.
EMPIRE CAPITAL RESEARCH
When Yield Is Not Return
FX-Adjusted Carry, Currency Depreciation and Market Returns in India and Bangladesh
Macro & Cross-Border Investment Research | October 2026
Headline finding | Result | Annual / relative measure | Interpretation |
INR depreciation, 2010-2026 | +116.9% | 4.96% p.a. | Long-run INR decline larger than BDT |
BDT depreciation, 2010-2026 | +79.0% | 3.71% p.a. | Sharper adjustment concentrated after 2021 |
India equity USD return, ~1Y | -17.03% | vs UST: -22.31 pp | Local equity loss amplified by INR weakness |
Bangladesh equity USD return, ~1Y | -1.46% | vs UST: -6.74 pp | Taka stability reduced USD drag |
Prepared for global investors with equity and debt exposure to India and Bangladesh
Executive Summary
For a USD-based investor, the headline local return on an emerging-market bond or equity index can…
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