Capital Markets

How vulnerable is Bangladesh’s equity market to another global oil shock? Empire Capital Research examines the transmission of Brent crude, USD/BDT, inflation, global bond yields and domestic funding conditions into DSEX. The report uses the July 2022 Brent high of $121.80 per barrel as a historical stress reference and develops scenario-based DSEX risk zones while distinguishing analytical stress testing from market forecasts or price targets.

Investor participation data indicates a shift in market composition during 13–17 September 2026, with institutional participation rising to 9.69% and foreign participation increasing to 2.03%. Combined institutional and foreign participation reached 11.72%, while retail participation declined to 85.72%, the lowest level in the seven-week review period. The analysis highlights stronger institutional involvement while noting that participation share does not confirm net buying or capital inflows without directional flow data.

Brent crude remains elevated amid near-term geopolitical and supply risks, but the futures curve continues to signal a downward normalization path through 2027. Empire Capital Research expects high event-driven volatility through late 2026, followed by a gradual easing in prices as supply conditions improve and demand pressures build.

The market finished the week marginally positive at 5,662.09 with average daily turnover of BDT 6.09bn, the liquidity confirmation absent from the mid-August bounce. Thursday's weak breadth alongside a 0.72% DS30 gain points to large-cap concentration rather than broad participation.

A four-session week in which DSEX fell 130.40 points to 5,655.68 while average daily turnover dropped to Tk571.71 crore. Thursday's rebound improved breadth but attracted no fresh liquidity, leaving stabilisation visible and reversal unconfirmed.

A multi-factor repricing has put market breadth, energy constraints and the 5,674 support reference into focus.

A corrective week in which 78.6% of tracked counters declined, DSMEX fell 5.36% and turnover faded into Thursday's rebound. The analysis covers index structure, breadth, the drivers behind the sell-off, stock dispersion and the technical levels that would define a recovery.

DSEX closed the 9-13 August week at 5,883.91, up 0.39%, yet advances trailed declines 774 to 929 for an aggregate 0.83x A/D ratio and average daily turnover fell 15.6% to BDT 9.98bn. A review of breadth, liquidity, sector concentration and retail participation.