Iran–Oil Escalation: Maritime Risk and Crude-Price Implications

The 23 October evening scenario update retained Scenario 3, Renewed Regional Escalation, as the base case while raising the probability of a severe oil supply shock from 30% to 33%. Reported tanker attacks and damage to very large crude carriers (VLCCs) increased concerns about maritime transport capacity. Brent crude reportedly touched $117.14 per barrel intraday, approaching the upper end of the existing $106–118 central scenario range. However, reported Middle Eastern exports remained resilient, and a sustained physical supply loss had not been established. This research note examines the scenario probabilities, conditional oil-price ranges, maritime risks and potential transmission channels to Bangladesh, including petroleum imports, power generation, LNG procurement, freight and inflationary pressures.